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07/31/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In danger of losing a fourth straight game, the Los Angeles Dodgers are in need of a spark. That could come from work-horse Chad Billingsley, who will pitch on three days' rest for the first time in his career this afternoon in the continuation of a three-game series versus the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park.
With Clayton Kershaw serving a five-game suspension for intentionally hitting San Francisco's Aaron Rowand in a game last week, the Dodgers are in need of a starter for this contest and will go with Billingsley on short rest.
Billingsley will take the hill after throwing six shutout innings in a 2-0 win over the Padres on Tuesday. The right-hander threw 84 pitches six days after firing a five-hit shutout over the Giants.
"There's always a little concern because we don't do [short rest] much," LA pitching coach Rick Honeycutt said on his team's website. "I think we only did it with Derek Lowe before. You never really know. But the way he's throwing and his last outing, we're using his judgment."
Billingsley, who turned 26 on Thursday, is 9-5 with a 4.00 earned run average this year and his win over the Giants last week improved him to 5-2 with a 3.22 ERA in his career against them. Both shutouts thrown by Billingsley in his career have come versus San Francisco.
He'll try to right the ship for the Dodgers, who are just 5-10 since the All- Star break after losing last night's opener to the Giants, 6-5. With San Francisco All-Star closer Brian Wilson unavailable due to a back ailment, the Dodgers scored three times in the ninth inning to get within one, but the rally fell short.
Scott Podsednik tripled in a run and scored on a wild pitch in the frame, while Matt Kemp's two-out single to center scored Rafael Furcal. However, Chris Ray got Casey Blake to ground into a fielder's choice to end the game.
"The last inning we're four down and it started from the first swing of the bat," said LA manager Joe Torre on his team's website. "Nobody threw their hands up. At the end we had the tying run at third, the possible winning run at first and an RBI guy at the plate."
Furcal went 3-for-3 with a homer run, two walks and a double for the Dodgers, who remained seven games behind first-place San Diego in the National League West, while the Giants moved within 2 1/2 games of the top spot by winning for the seventh time in nine games.
Aubrey Huff paced San Francisco's offense with three hits, a home run and three RBI, while Ray's save preserved the win for Tim Lincecum, who gave up two early runs over seven innings while striking out nine.
The Giants will try to make it two victories in a row tonight behind Barry Zito, but he has just one win over his last eight starts and will try to avoid a third straight losing start today.
The left-hander yielded two runs over 7 1/3 innings of a tough-luck loss to the Dodgers and Billingsley on July 21, then gave up three runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 frames of a 4-3 defeat to the Marlins on Monday.
Zito, 32, is now 8-6 with a 3.49 ERA this year and his career record versus the Dodgers slipped to an even 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA. He is, however, 6-2 with a 2.65 ERA in 11 home starts this season.
Los Angeles has won six of 10 from the Giants this season.
<< Tigers continue road series with Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers finally halted a nine-game road losing
streak last night and will aim for a second straight win over the Boston Red
Sox today at Fenway Park.
In Friday's opener, Jhonny Peralta hit a pair of homers and d
<< Blue Jays hope to stay hot versus Indians
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays are riding a four-game winning streak
and will attempt to continue the string of strong play against the Cleveland
Indians in the second of three weekend games at Rogers Centre.
Righty Jake Westbrook
<< Wick's two home runs power Canada over Italy
Thunder Bay, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With upsets aplenty and coming off a scare
of their own, Team Canada wasn't taking any chances against an overmatched
Italian squad in the quarterfinals of the World Junior Baseball Championships.
A day aft
<< Cuba edges U.S. in thrilling quarterfinal
Thunder Bay, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a dramatic quarterfinal matchup, one
can only imagine what else is in store for the final weekend of the World
Junior Baseball Championship.
Omar Luis threw nine solid innings in a gutsy 144-pitch eff
Winds of change surround Brewers-Astros clash >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Things sure are changing in the Astros' clubhouse in a
hurry, but that hasn't stopped the club from putting together a little win
streak.
Having already traded one face of the franchise, Houston appears on the verge
of sh
White Sox aim for 13th straight home win vs. A's >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago will attempt to extend its home winning streak to
13 consecutive games tonight as they continue a three-game weekend set at
U.S. Cellular Field against the Oakland Athletics.
Yesterday, Gordon Beckham had two hits
Angels shoot for another win over first-place Rangers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim continue their quest to
gain ground on the Texas Rangers as the top two teams in the AL West continue
their three-game weekend series.
Newly-acquired Dan Haren will make his second start f
Rockies hope to break out bats against vs. Cubs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The host Colorado Rockies can make it three straight in
suddenly potent offensive style tonight when the Chicago Cubs head to Coors
Field for the second of three games.
Colorado, which had lost eight straight before Thursd
In terms of sports wagering, the NFL is "the most popular game in town." The explanation behind that is easy.
It is called the "pointspread."
Many years ago, NFL games, as well as the more popular college games, used straight odds as a vehicle for betting. For example, if the Bears were playing the Giants, and it shaped up as a competitive contest, the Bears might be, say, a 7/5 favorite. If they were playing an also-ran, it might be 10/1. Well, there is a point where a line becomes prohibitive, as far as betting the favorite. And who would waste money betting an underdog that has virtually no chance? Such a setup did not contribute to promoting betting action.
But in modern sports betting, a "pointspread" is used.
A NFL pointspreads are exactly that, a pre-established point difference between the two sides that will, for all intents and purposes, create a handicap that evens things out, and in doing so, produces comparable wagering activity on both sides of that proposition. So in lieu of a odds figure in which to bet the team to win outright, the Bears might be a three-point favorite over the New York Giants, and a 17-point favorite over the also-ran. Now that the team that is the underdog can "get" points, there can be equal action on both sides.
In sportsbooks, this is usually done with efficiency by charging the losing bettors 10% extra - in effect, bettors are laying 11/10 on those games. So they are actually betting $110 to win $100. If they lose, they pay the "vig." If they win, they simply collect.
The establishment of the pointspread as the corner stone around which team sports like football can be wagered upon was truly what brought gridiron betting into the stratosphere for online football betting .
Don't believe it? Just take a look at what happens around the Super Bowl.
Stay with us here as we take you through the best in NFL action on a consistent basis, with advice columns as well as handicapping selections. If you're looking for college football betting, that's in our NCAA section, which you can reach by clicking here. And if you're looking for a different kind of football, such as the Canadian Football League, which we'll deal with occasionally, or the Arena Football League, which we really like, you can find it in our Miscellaneous section by clicking
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting odds .
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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