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02/04/2012 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I'll Have Another, the longest shot in the field, pulled an upset in Saturday's $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park. The 1 1/16-mile stakes is a stepping stone to the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Sent off as the 43-1 outsider in the eight-horse field, I'll Have Another was racing second up the backstretch behind pacesetter Isn't He Clever. Liaison, the 3-2 favorite, was running in third in the early going and fourth on the backstretch.
I'll Have Another, ridden by Mario Gutierrez, continued to press the pace as the field entered the far turn. Coming into the stretch Isn't He Clever was joined by I'll Have Another on the lead, but the eventual winner went past the pacesetter down the stretch.
I'll Have Another, trained by Doug O'Neill, hit the wire 2 3/4-lengths to the good over 11-1 longshot Empire Way. Groovin' Bob was third followed by Rousing Sermon, Isn't He Clever, Sky Kingdom and Chips All In. Liaison clipped heels and lost his jockey inside the furlong pole. Groovin' Bob was disqualified to last for interference in midstretch.
"He's an incredibly talented colt and we decided to take a chance in here," the winning trainer noted. "We thought he could hit the board and we'd move forward, but he ran unbelievable. Mario (Gutierrez) gave him a great ride. He's always trained fantastic, but we never saw this coming to be honest with you. This is incredible. We'll look at the Santa Anita Derby if all goes well."
The time for the Lewis Stakes was 1:40.84 on a fast track.
I'll Have Another, owned by Reddam Racing, notched his first win since beginning his career with a victory last July at Hollywood Park. Saturday's win was worth $120,000. The chestnut colt followed his initial win with a second in the Best Pal Stakes in August and a sixth at Saratoga in the Hopeful. His earnings now stand at $184,000.
"We bought him at the OBS (sale) in April of last year and we've loved him since Day One," said Dennis O'Neill, the trainer's brother and associate. "He trained like a really good horse from Day One, trained like a two-turn horse from Day One. He came out of his Saratoga race with sore shins, so when we got him back going, Paul (owner J. Paul Reddam) said to take our time with him. We paid $35,000 for him. It's great for Paul. Paul's put a lot of money in the game and this is fantastic for Paul."
I'll Have Another returned $88.60, $35.80 and $12.00. Empire Way paid $11.80 and $6.20, and Rousing Sermon paid $3.40 to show.
<< Northern Iowa knocks off No. 13 Creighton
Cedar Rapids, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After Antoine Young's three-pointer from
the top of the arc tied the game at 62 with five seconds remaining, Anthony
James raced up the floor and buried a step-back three-pointer at the buzzer,
lifting
<< Battle Hardened gains victory at Tampa Bay
Oldsmar, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lightly raced Battle Hardened came from off the
pace to capture Saturday's $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
The 1 1/16-mile race is the final local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby on March
10.
<< Levin extends lead at Phoenix Open
Scottsdale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Spencer Levin didn't have the kind of
big performance he put together during his first two days at the Phoenix Open,
but avoided big mistakes Saturday and emerged with a commanding lead.
Levin shot a
<< Alpha rolls to victory in Withers
Ozone Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Odds-on favorite Alpha cruised to victory on
Saturday in the $200,000 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. The race, which was not
run last year, is a prep event for Aqueduct's $1 million Wood Memorial on
April 7
Baltimore LB Suggs honored as top defensive player >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baltimore outside linebacker Terrell Suggs
was named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year Saturday, as voted by the
Associated Press.
Suggs had 14 sacks among his 70 tackles to help lead the Rav
Packers QB Rodgers voted NFL MVP >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers was
named the NFL's Most Valuable Player Saturday, as voted by the Associated
Press.
Rodgers won the award in a landslide as he received 48 of the 50 possib
Miller, Newton garner rookie awards >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denver linebacker Von Miller and Carolina
quarterback Cam Newton were named the defensive and offensive Rookies of the
Year, respectively, for the 2011 season.
The voting, as conducted by the Associated
Ravens center Matt Birk named Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baltimore Ravens center Matt Birk was
honored as the 2011 NFL Man of the Year on Saturday. The award recognizes a
player's off-the-field community service as well as his playing excellence.
"I am
Many fans thought it was the best side in the nation by the end of last season. This year, the polls have built on Georgia's momentum and granted it the No. 1 preseason ranking, followed by Ohio State and USC. (The Associated Press has the Buckeyes at No. 2; USA Today took the Trojans.)
"To have people believing we have one of the best teams in the nation going into this thing, it's exciting for us," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt told the AP. "I don't think anything is guaranteed, but we certainly have put ourselves in position where at least the college football world thinks we're pretty good."
Georgia Bulldogs - 9.5 wins
There's no question they're good, but the Bulldogs have one of the toughest 12-game schedules in the nation, mostly because they play in the powerhouse Southeastern Conference. Away games at No. 15 Arizona State, No. 7 LSU and No. 10 Auburn loom large, with contests between the hedges versus No. 24 Alabama and No. 18 Tennessee as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville versus No.5 Florida.
Ohio State Buckeyes - 10 wins
Like the Bulldogs, the Buckeyes also have a number of tough road contests in 2008. After two scrimmages dressed up as real games versus Youngstown State and Ohio, it's off to face USC. Other tough away games include No.13 Wisconsin in October and No. 20 Illinois in November. Granted, it should be pretty easy sledding at the Horseshoe. In fact, the only ranked team that travels to Columbus is No. 22 Penn State, in October.
USC Trojans - 10.5 wins
A similarly light schedule awaits the Trojans of Southern California, which is why the oddsmakers' total is one win more and the over is currently commanding -150 odds. Pete Carroll's troops only play three ranked teams in 2008, and all of those games are at home. After what should be an easy trip to Virginia to start things off on Aug. 30, the Trojans get two weeks to prepare for Ohio State in Los Angeles. Their two other ranked opponents, No. 21 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona State, visit in consecutive weeks to start the month of October. After that, the competition eases up. Of course, this is the same highly-touted school that lost to Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State in 2006. And don't discount the fact that USC plays its biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA, back-to-back to close out the regular season. On paper, the Trojans are far superior, but motivation will be high for the Irish and Bruins, especially if their historic foes are in national-title contention.
Odds to Win the Heisman Trophy
Tim Tebow, Florida - 7/2
He won it last year, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to do it again, making him just the second player to go back-to-back. Ohio State's Archie Griffin turned the trick in 1974 and 1975, and Tebow's coach, Urban Meyer, is pretty sure his star quarterback can match the Buckeyes legend.
"There has never been anyone quite like him," Meyer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I am very lucky to be his coach."
Chris Wells, Ohio State - 5/1
The man they call "Beanie" was a star recruit out of high school, so it's not like nobody knew who the star tailback was before he rushed for 576 yards as a freshman in 2006 and 1,609 as a sophomore. But perhaps his finest moment came last year versus Michigan when he rumbled for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 14-3 victory over the hated Wolverines.
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 8/1
If the Bulldogs are to live up to expectations, they'll need a huge effort from their sophomore running back. This might be the last year of college ball for Moreno, who rushed for 1,334 yards and for 14 touchdowns as a freshman, while adding 253 receiving yards on 20 receptions, so expect big things for the man from Belford, N.J.
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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