OVC action pits Racers against Tigers

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2012 - Murray, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ninth-ranked Murray State Racers will once again march out on the court to defend their perfect record as they host the Tennessee State Tigers in an Ohio Valley Conference clash at the CFSB Center.

This will be the first of two scheduled meetings between the Racers and Tennessee State this season. Murray State holds a 46-15 edge in the all-time series after winning the last eight encounters with the Tigers.

Tennessee State is going to be one of the tougher matchups for the Racers on their OVC schedule. The Tigers are 15-10 overall and 8-4 in league action after their 75-72 road victory over Southeast Missouri State on Saturday, which left them in a tie for second place in the league standings. Head coach John Cooper's team continued to play well offensively as it shot 42.4 percent from the fiend and 38.5 percent from beyond the arc in the victory over SEMO. Tennessee State is fourth in league action in the OVC with a scoring average of 72.0 ppg. The Tigers are the second hottest team in the conference, as they carry a five-game winning streak into tonight.

Robert Covington is one of the top players in the conference, as he carries averages of 17.8 points and 8.0 rebounds per contest. The junior forward was exceptional his last time out, as he netted 23 points and grabbed 13 rebounds to help his squad push past Southeast Missouri State. Kellen Thornton came up big off the bench in the same contest with 15 points and six boards off the bench while Kenny Moore added 11 points. Patrick Miller controls the offense and is posting 11.7 points and a team-high 3.5 assists per game.

Head coach Steve Prohm is 23-0 for his career in leading the Racers to their incredible start. Murray State's road to perfection has seen recent close calls, as every OVC team is trying to make headlines with an upset. After a second-half comeback against Missouri State on Thursday of last week, the Racers outlasted Tennessee-Martin to pick up a 65-58 victory, which made them 11-0 in league action. Murray State's statistics illustrate their dominance, as it leads the OVC in both scoring offense (75.2) and scoring defense (61.3).

The Racers have been paced by their MVP candidate Isaiah Canaan. The junior guard is ranked second in the league and 24th in the nation in scoring with 19.3 ppg and is also third in the OVC in assists with 3.8 per game. Donte Poole and Ivan Aska have been steadily contributing to keep Murray State rolling. Poole has been slumping as of late, as he has gone 1-of-15 from the floor in his last two contests. Aska grabbing a team-best 5.9 boards per game. Jewuan Long stretches the defense with his 51.4 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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